Thursday, January 17, 2008

"How Much Longer Can The Media Afford To Cover 8 Campaigns?"

One of the many smart observations in this insightful article by John Ellis at

He also notes something about media darling John McCain that you'll never read in the Boston Globe Democrat:

McCain is much weaker in 2008 than he was in 2000. In 2000, McCain received over 600,000 votes in the Michigan primary. In 2008, he received just over 250,000 votes in the Michigan primary. That is substantial attrition no matter how you look at it. Republican primary voters who like President George W. Bush didn't vote for McCain in Michigan. There are a lot of Republican primary voters in the South who like George W. Bush. This is bad news for McCain going into South Carolina.

He's right about McCain overall, but wrong about McCain in South Carolina. South Carolina Republicans tend to be deferential towards establishment candidates, particularly ones who the voters perceive deserve "their turn." Vice President Bush, Sen. Dole and, in 2008, Sen. McCain. McCain's support from many establishment SC Republicans like Attorney General McMaster will help him among the obedient sheep of the Republican flock.

McCain will also be helped in South Carolina by the fact that three social conservatives--Huckabee, Thompson and Romney--are competitive there. His 30% should all-but-guarantee a win in South Carolina.