Can Republicans Win (Or At Least Not Lose) On Tuesday?
One smart blogger, local boy Dean Barnett, says "yes." Read it and tell me what you think.
Me? I think Dean is being too optimistic--but not by much. I think you're going to hear a lot of "the GOP cheated!" (seee below) because the Democrats aren't going to have the tidal wave success they're predicting.
For example, the Republicans will hold onto the US Senate by winning TN, MO and VA--and surprising people by holding MT and (unfortunately) RI. I also predict surprising good news in either NJ or MD--a GOP pickup of a previously Dem Senate seat.
Having said that, it's almost certain Speaker Pelosi will be addressing the nation from Washington DC (not her home district in San Francisco) on Tuesday night. The "almost" part is why I'm standing by my prediction a month ago that the GOP will hold onto the House of Representatives. I'm probably wrong, but hey--no guts, no glory, right?
Which means that the MEDIA story of the night will be "Bush Defeated! GOP Punished By Angry Electorate Punishing Them For Policies The Media Don't Support!" Nobody other than Fox News will report "Dem's Tsunami Turns To Teapot Tempest--Slim Gains, Not Dramatic Victory For Their Party."
My Other Headline Prediction: "Karl Rove--No Longer 'SuperGenius,' Just Genius Enough."
UPDATE: Howard Fineman offers his possible "GOP (Sort of) Wins" in his own insulting (sort of) way here.