Friday, March 21, 2008

Mrs Bill Clinton Finds Out That "Teen Talk Barbie" Was Right

Math class IS tough...on any chance for Hillary to win the Democratic nomination.

Despite the collapse of Sen. Obama as a potential winner in November, he will absolutely beat her in the pledged (read "elected") delegate count at the end of the primary season. There was a very slim chance Mrs. Clinton could catch him if Michigan and Florida held a second primary, but now that the re-vote option is dead (as I told you weeks ago), Sen. Obama has a lock on the pledged delegates.

So now Hillary supporters are putting all their eggs in the "popular vote" basket. The theory is that, if Democrats realize just how damaged and polarizing Sen. Obama has become, they will seize on the popular vote issue as a way to escape the all-but-certain defeat an Obama nomination would bring.

But they have forgotten Graham's First Rule Of Politics: You can't beat the math. provides the numbers:

A high, rough estimate of all the remaining [Democratic primary] states then would leave between 5 million and 6 million popular votes on the table.

For Clinton to pick up her lead in the popular vote with 6 million ballots cast, she’d need a 12 percent margin across the states — that’s a 56 percent to 44 percent average win. With 5 million ballots, she would need a 14 percent margin — that’s a 57 percent to 43 percent overall victory, including expected defeats in states counting for well over 1 million votes.

Removing North Carolina and Oregon from the list [where Obama is expected to win], Clinton’s wins would likely have to tally well over 60 percent of the vote.

So far, however, Clinton has broken 56 percent in just four states, including her home state of New York.

It ain't gonna happen. Sen. Obama has won the Democratic primary. The only way he's not on the top of the ticket in November is for the superdelegates to take it away from him.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.